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Back to Equities for a Sec... Bullish January Barometer?

The month of January is a reasonably good predictor of the year based on S&P 500 data going back to 1928. When January is up, which is the scenario for 2024, the year has been up 80% of the time with an average return of 13.2%, and the rest of the year (February-December) has been up 78% of the time with an average return of 8.7%. This does not rule out SPX 5260-5400 into year-end 2024. 2024 is a US Presidential election year and Year 4 of the Presidential Cycle. When the SPX is up in January in Year 4, the index has been up 100% of the time (11 out of 11 times) for both the year and the rest of the year with average returns of 16.6% and 12.0%, respectively.Happy Friday!

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Dane Adelman[email protected]216.403.6244Eric Wolf[email protected]516.761.5477